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Southern Soccer Academy vs Dalton Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Southern Soccer Academy
Southern Soccer Academy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
6/25/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 49Marathon Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Southern Soccer Academy45%
×Draw23%
Dalton Red Wolves31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southern Soccer Academy
1.73
Dalton Red Wolves
1.40

Southern Soccer Academy creates 24% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 24 away

creates per match

Southern Soccer Academy
1.57
Dalton Red Wolves
1.29

allows per match

Southern Soccer Academy
1.51
Dalton Red Wolves
1.88

finishing

Southern Soccer Academy+0.00on par
Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southern Soccer Academy ↓

Dalton Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Southern Soccer Academy or draw
69%
Southern Soccer Academy or Dalton Red Wolves
77%
Draw or Dalton Red Wolves
55%

Winning margin

Southern Soccer Academy wins by 2+
24%
Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Southern Soccer Academy 1+ goals
82%
Southern Soccer Academy 2+ goals
52%
Southern Soccer Academy 3+ goals
25%
Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
75%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
41%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Southern Soccer Academy (draw refunded)
59%
Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southern Soccer Academy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Dalton Red Wolves away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southern Soccer Academy attack 1.57 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.29 + Southern Soccer Academy defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Southern Soccer Academy scores more
45%
level
23%
Dalton Red Wolves scores more
31%

Southern Soccer Academy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Southern Soccer Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Southern Soccer Academy 0–2 Dalton Red Wolves

Dalton Red Wolves beat Southern Soccer Academy 2-0 in USL League Two on June 25, 2022.

The match was played at Marathon Soccer Park in Austell.