Southern District 6–1 HK U23: Result & Stats

Southern District

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

HK U23

10/8/2022

FA Cup · 1st RoundMong Kok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Southern District68%

×Draw16%

HK U2316%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southern DistrictExpected goals in this matchHK U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.42

Southern District

2.96

HK U23

1.42

Southern District creates 108% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.25

creates per match

0.33

2.50

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Southern District

2.25

HK U23

0.33

allows per match

Southern District

2.50

HK U23

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southern District+0.00on par

HK U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southern District ↓

HK U23 →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Southern District or draw

84%

Southern District or HK U23

84%

Draw or HK U23

32%

Winning margin

Southern District wins by 2+

48%

HK U23 wins by 2+

Team goals

Southern District 1+ goals

95%

Southern District 2+ goals

79%

Southern District 3+ goals

55%

HK U23 1+ goals

76%

HK U23 2+ goals

41%

HK U23 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Southern District (draw refunded)

81%

HK U23 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Southern District at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

HK U23 away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Southern District attack 2.25 + HK U23 defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.96

HK U23 attack 0.33 + Southern District defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Southern District scores more

68%

level

16%

HK U23 scores more

16%

Southern District at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Southern District will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff