Southern City 0–3 Thimphu City: Result & Stats

Southern City

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Thimphu City

8/23/2025

Premier League · Regular SeasonGelephu Public Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Southern City19%

×Draw18%

Thimphu City62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southern CityExpected goals in this matchThimphu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.53

Southern City

1.36

Thimphu City

2.53

Thimphu City creates 86% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 32 away

1.13

creates per match

3.06

2.00

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Southern City

1.13

Thimphu City

3.06

allows per match

Southern City

2.00

Thimphu City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southern City+0.00on par

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southern City ↓

Thimphu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Southern City or draw

38%

Southern City or Thimphu City

82%

Draw or Thimphu City

81%

Winning margin

Southern City wins by 2+

8%

Thimphu City wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Southern City 1+ goals

74%

Southern City 2+ goals

39%

Southern City 3+ goals

16%

Thimphu City 1+ goals

92%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

71%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Southern City (draw refunded)

24%

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southern City at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Thimphu City away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southern City attack 1.13 + Thimphu City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Thimphu City attack 3.06 + Southern City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Southern City scores more

19%

level

18%

Thimphu City scores more

62%

Thimphu City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff