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Southern City vs Samtse — Premier League 2023

Southern City
Southern City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Samtse
Samtse
7/1/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonGelephu Public Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Southern City57%
×Draw19%
Samtse24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southern City
2.56
Samtse
1.64

Southern City creates 56% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

creates per match

Southern City
1.13
Samtse
1.28

allows per match

Southern City
2.00
Samtse
4.00

finishing

Southern City+0.00on par
Samtse+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southern City ↓

Samtse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Southern City or draw
76%
Southern City or Samtse
81%
Draw or Samtse
43%

Winning margin

Southern City wins by 2+
37%
Samtse wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Southern City 1+ goals
92%
Southern City 2+ goals
72%
Southern City 3+ goals
46%
Samtse 1+ goals
81%
Samtse 2+ goals
49%
Samtse 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Southern City (draw refunded)
70%
Samtse (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southern City at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Samtse away — creates 1.28, concedes 4.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southern City attack 1.13 + Samtse defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.56

Samtse attack 1.28 + Southern City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Southern City scores more
57%
level
19%
Samtse scores more
24%

Southern City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Southern City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southern City vs Samtse

Southern City beat Samtse 1-0 in Premier League on July 1, 2025.

The match was played at Gelephu Public Ground in Gelephu.