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Southend vs Wycombe — League One 2018

Southend
Southend
CANC
14:00
Wycombe
Wycombe
4/10/2020League OneLeague One · Round 42Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Southend32%
×Draw25%
Wycombe44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southend
1.29
Wycombe
1.56

Wycombe creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 158 away

creates per match

Southend
1.27
Wycombe
1.26

allows per match

Southend
1.87
Wycombe
1.32

finishing

Southend+0.00on par
Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Wycombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Southend or draw
56%
Southend or Wycombe
75%
Draw or Wycombe
68%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+
14%
Wycombe wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals
72%
Southend 2+ goals
37%
Southend 3+ goals
14%
Wycombe 1+ goals
79%
Wycombe 2+ goals
46%
Wycombe 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)
42%
Wycombe (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.27 + Wycombe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Wycombe attack 1.26 + Southend defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Southend scores more
32%
level
25%
Wycombe scores more
44%

Wycombe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Southend face Wycombe (League One)

League One returns with Southend hosting Wycombe. Match starts April 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Southend host Wycombe at Roots Hall.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.