Southend 0–0 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Southend

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Walsall

3/23/2021

League Two · Round 28Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Southend36%

×Draw29%

Walsall36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

Southend

1.13

Walsall

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 156 away

0.94

creates per match

1.13

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Southend

0.94

Walsall

1.13

allows per match

Southend

1.13

Walsall

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Southend or draw

64%

Southend or Walsall

71%

Draw or Walsall

64%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

15%

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

68%

Southend 2+ goals

31%

Southend 3+ goals

11%

Walsall 1+ goals

68%

Walsall 2+ goals

31%

Walsall 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

50%

Walsall (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 0.94 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Walsall attack 1.13 + Southend defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Southend scores more

36%

level

29%

Walsall scores more

36%

Southend at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Southend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. Roberts

Walsall · G

8.2

Match Events

15'

31'

36'

36'

46'

W. McDonald← J. Gordon

46'

D. Osei Yaw← C. Lavery

46'

C. Cockerill-Mollett← M. Melbourne

57'

S. Akinola← B. Goodship

67'

Sam Hart

68'

S. Perry← S. Sinclair

73'

J. Olayinka← A. McCormack

74'

F. Vincent← C. Norman

82'

James Clarke

83'

Tom Leak

90'

Derick Osei Yaw

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthendWalsall

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots3

5Corners2

12Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots3

6On Target1

7Off Target1

1Blocked1

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box0

Passing

56%Possession44%

376Total Passes298

252Accurate Passes166

67%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls19

2Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1