Southend 0–2 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League Two

Southend

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Tranmere

G. Ray 24'

P. Lewis 8'

3/9/2021

League Two · Round 35Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Southend40%

×Draw29%

Tranmere32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.05

Southend

1.21

Tranmere

1.05

Southend creates 15% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 144 away

0.94

creates per match

0.97

1.13

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Southend

0.94

Tranmere

0.97

allows per match

Southend

1.13

Tranmere

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Southend or draw

68%

Southend or Tranmere

71%

Draw or Tranmere

60%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

17%

Tranmere wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

70%

Southend 2+ goals

34%

Southend 3+ goals

12%

Tranmere 1+ goals

65%

Tranmere 2+ goals

28%

Tranmere 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

56%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 0.94 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Southend defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Southend scores more

40%

level

29%

Tranmere scores more

32%

Southend at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Southend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Feeney

Tranmere · M

8.0

Match Events

8'

P. Lewis↳ K. Woolery

24'

G. Ray↳ L. Feeney

46'

B. Goodship← E. Acquah

46'

S. Hart← T. Clifford

55'

John White

69'

K. Taylor← J. Demetriou

69'

A. Nathaniel-George← R. Holmes

83'

D. Nugent← K. Morris

86'

Reeco Hackett-Fairchild

87'

L. Ridehalgh← D. Lloyd

88'

A. McCormack← N. Ferguson

90+3'

C. Taylor← C. MacDonald

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthendTranmere

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots11

2Corners7

10Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots11

2On Target4

3Off Target3

3Blocked4

5Inside Box10

3Outside Box1

Passing

37%Possession63%

311Total Passes517

189Accurate Passes387

61%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1