Southend 2–2 Rotherham: Result & Stats | League One

Southend

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rotherham

S. Mantom 52'

J. Demetriou 49' (pen)

F. Ladapo 60'

R. Kiernan 29' (OG)

12/14/2019

League One · Round 21Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Southend30%

×Draw25%

Rotherham44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.51

Southend

1.21

Rotherham

1.51

Rotherham creates 25% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 99 away

1.27

creates per match

1.15

1.87

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Southend

1.27

Rotherham

1.15

allows per match

Southend

1.87

Rotherham

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Southend or draw

56%

Southend or Rotherham

75%

Draw or Rotherham

70%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

13%

Rotherham wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

70%

Southend 2+ goals

34%

Southend 3+ goals

12%

Rotherham 1+ goals

78%

Rotherham 2+ goals

44%

Rotherham 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

41%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.27 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Southend defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Southend scores more

30%

level

25%

Rotherham scores more

44%

Rotherham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. McLaughlin

Southend · M

7.9

Match Events

29'

R. KiernanOwn goal

37'

Daniel Barlaser

42'

Michael Smith

48'

Chiedozie Ogbene

49'

J. DemetriouPenalty

52'

S. Mantom↳ E. Bwomono

60'

F. Ladapo↳ C. Robertson

75'

I. Hutchinson← S. Mantom

77'

80'

80'

80'

83'

S. Cox← S. McLaughlin

87'

L. Ndukwu← B. Goodship

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthendRotherham

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots17

5Corners14

13Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots17

3On Target6

7Off Target7

4Blocked4

12Inside Box14

2Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

270Total Passes276

135Accurate Passes139

50%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls16

1Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2