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Southend vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Southend
Southend
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
2/16/2019League OneLeague One · Round 33Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Southend28%
×Draw25%
Portsmouth48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southend
1.18
Portsmouth
1.62

Portsmouth creates 37% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 134 away

creates per match

Southend
1.25
Portsmouth
1.34

allows per match

Southend
1.90
Portsmouth
1.10

finishing

Southend+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Southend or draw
52%
Southend or Portsmouth
75%
Draw or Portsmouth
72%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+
11%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals
69%
Southend 2+ goals
33%
Southend 3+ goals
12%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
80%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
48%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)
37%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.25 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Southend defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Southend scores more
28%
level
25%
Portsmouth scores more
48%

Portsmouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Southend 3–3 Portsmouth

Southend and Portsmouth drew 3-3 in League One on February 16, 2019.

The match was played at Roots Hall in Southend-on-Sea.