Southend 0–2 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League Two

Southend

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

10/31/2020

League Two · Round 10Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Southend28%

×Draw30%

Port Vale42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.19

Southend

0.92

Port Vale

1.19

Port Vale creates 29% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 118 away

0.67

creates per match

1.16

1.21

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Southend

0.67

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Southend

1.21

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Southend or draw

58%

Southend or Port Vale

70%

Draw or Port Vale

72%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

10%

Port Vale wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

60%

Southend 2+ goals

23%

Southend 3+ goals

7%

Port Vale 1+ goals

70%

Port Vale 2+ goals

33%

Port Vale 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

40%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 0.67 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Southend defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Southend scores more

28%

level

30%

Port Vale scores more

42%

Port Vale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff