Southend 1–2 Oldham: Result & Stats | League Two

Southend

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Oldham

10/27/2020

League Two · Round 9Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Southend32%

×Draw29%

Oldham39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.19

Southend

1.06

Oldham

1.19

Oldham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 111 away

0.67

creates per match

1.16

1.21

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Southend

0.67

Oldham

1.16

allows per match

Southend

1.21

Oldham

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Southend or draw

61%

Southend or Oldham

71%

Draw or Oldham

68%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

13%

Oldham wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

65%

Southend 2+ goals

29%

Southend 3+ goals

9%

Oldham 1+ goals

70%

Oldham 2+ goals

33%

Oldham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

45%

Oldham (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 0.67 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.06

Oldham attack 1.16 + Southend defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Southend scores more

32%

level

29%

Oldham scores more

39%

Oldham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff