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Southend vs Milton Keynes Dons — League One 2018

Southend
Southend
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
12/26/2019League OneLeague One · Round 23Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Southend32%
×Draw25%
Milton Keynes Dons43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southend
1.32
Milton Keynes Dons
1.58

Milton Keynes Dons creates 20% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 95 away

creates per match

Southend
1.25
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27

allows per match

Southend
1.90
Milton Keynes Dons
1.40

finishing

Southend+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Southend or draw
57%
Southend or Milton Keynes Dons
75%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
68%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+
14%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals
73%
Southend 2+ goals
38%
Southend 3+ goals
15%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
79%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
47%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)
42%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.25 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Southend defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Southend scores more
32%
level
25%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
43%

Milton Keynes Dons at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southend vs Milton Keynes Dons

Southend and Milton Keynes Dons drew 2-2 in League One on December 26, 2019.

The match was played at Roots Hall in Southend-on-Sea, Essex.