Southend 0–1 Luton: Result & Stats | League One

Southend

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Luton

M. Pearson 29'

1/26/2019

League One · Round 30Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Southend29%

×Draw24%

Luton47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.66

Southend

1.25

Luton

1.66

Luton creates 33% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

1.27

creates per match

1.45

1.87

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Southend

1.27

Luton

1.45

allows per match

Southend

1.87

Luton

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Southend or draw

53%

Southend or Luton

76%

Draw or Luton

71%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

12%

Luton wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

71%

Southend 2+ goals

36%

Southend 3+ goals

13%

Luton 1+ goals

81%

Luton 2+ goals

49%

Luton 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

38%

Luton (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

Luton away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.27 + Luton defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Luton attack 1.45 + Southend defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Southend scores more

29%

level

24%

Luton scores more

47%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Dru Yearwood

29'

M. Pearson↳ J. Justin

65'

Sam Hart

69'

C. Kelman← D. Yearwood

84'

S. McLaughlin← S. Mantom

86'

G. Moncur← K. LuaLua

90'

Alan McCormack

90'

Jack Stacey

Southend

Luton

36

Shea

5

Bradley

6

⚽

Pearson

4

McCormack

25

▼

11

8

17

7

2

A

19

13

6

48

8

23

42

2

18

▼

Mantom

16

▼

Yearwood

10

Cox

39

Humphrys

Manager: C. Powell

69'▲C. Kelman←▼D. Yearwood

84'▲S. McLaughlin←▼S. Mantom

Southend substitutes

34Kelman11McLaughlin7Kightly20Klass22Smith31Robinson36Hutchinson

Manager: M. Harford

86'▲G. Moncur←▼K. LuaLua

Luton substitutes

20Moncur3Potts24Thorne27Jarvis28Jones40Isted44Sheehan