Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Southend vs Coventry — League One 2018

Southend
Southend
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
M. Biamou 79'
C. O'Hare 60'
2/15/2020League OneLeague One · Round 34Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Southend32%
×Draw24%
Coventry44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southend
1.34
Coventry
1.60

Coventry creates 19% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

Southend
1.27
Coventry
1.32

allows per match

Southend
1.87
Coventry
1.41

finishing

Southend+0.00on par
Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Southend or draw
56%
Southend or Coventry
76%
Draw or Coventry
68%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+
14%
Coventry wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals
74%
Southend 2+ goals
39%
Southend 3+ goals
15%
Coventry 1+ goals
80%
Coventry 2+ goals
47%
Coventry 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)
42%
Coventry (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.27 + Coventry defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Coventry attack 1.32 + Southend defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Southend scores more
32%
level
24%
Coventry scores more
44%

Coventry at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
D. HyamCoventryCoventry · D
7.4

Match Events

31'
Fankaty Dabo
55'
C. O'Hare← J. Shipley
56'
M. Biamou← Z. Westbrooke
60'
C. O'Hare↳ S. McCallum
68'
K. Coker← B. Goodship
69'
J. Pask← F. Dabo
79'
I. Hutchinson← S. Barratt
79'
M. Biamou
86'
C. Taylor← M. Oxley

Possession

38%Southend

Shots

7Southend

Pass accuracy

45%Southend

Statistics

SouthendCoventry
Overview
38%Possession62%
7Total Shots14
2Corners8
10Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots14
0On Target6
4Off Target6
3Blocked2
2Inside Box8
5Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
340Total Passes529
222Accurate Passes416
65%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

League One: Southend 0–2 Coventry

Coventry beat Southend 2-0 in League One on February 15, 2020.

Goals: C. O'Hare (60'), M. Biamou (79').

Coventry controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Roots Hall in Southend-on-Sea, Essex.