Southend 1–2 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Southend

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Cambridge United

S. Akinola 27'

J. Ironside 68'

J. Iredale 46'

1/19/2021

League Two · Round 13Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Southend29%

×Draw30%

Cambridge United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.17

Southend

0.94

Cambridge United

1.17

Cambridge United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 90 away

0.67

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Southend

0.67

Cambridge United

1.13

allows per match

Southend

1.21

Cambridge United

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Southend or draw

59%

Southend or Cambridge United

70%

Draw or Cambridge United

71%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

10%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

61%

Southend 2+ goals

24%

Southend 3+ goals

7%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

69%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

33%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

42%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.21 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 0.67 + Cambridge United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.94

Cambridge United attack 1.13 + Southend defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Southend scores more

29%

level

30%

Cambridge United scores more

41%

Cambridge United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Ironside

Cambridge United · F

7.7

Match Events

27'

40'

40'

46'

59'

R. Hackett-Fairchild← E. Acquah

68'

J. Ironside↳ P. Mullin

73'

K. Taylor← J. Demetriou

73'

A. Nathaniel-George← G. Halford

82'

T. Clifford← A. McCormack

90'

Mark Oxley

90+5'

L. O'Neil← P. Mullin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthendCambridge

Overview

50%Possession50%

17Total Shots8

5Corners5

15Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots8

4On Target4

5Off Target3

8Blocked1

9Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

269Total Passes269

148Accurate Passes154

55%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1