Southend 3–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Southend

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol Rovers

3/7/2020

League One · Round 37Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Southend38%

×Draw25%

Bristol Rovers37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.41

Southend

1.44

Bristol Rovers

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 131 away

1.27

creates per match

0.95

1.87

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Southend

1.27

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Southend

1.87

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Southend or draw

63%

Southend or Bristol Rovers

75%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

62%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

18%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

76%

Southend 2+ goals

42%

Southend 3+ goals

18%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

76%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

41%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

51%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.27 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Southend defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Southend scores more

38%

level

25%

Bristol Rovers scores more

37%

Southend at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Southend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff