Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Southend vs Barrow — League #43 2026

Southend
Southend
Preview
14:00
Barrow
Barrow
9/26/2026League #43League #43 · Round 10Roots Hall
50%
Southend
model favours
50%25%25%

Barrow score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Southend50%
×Draw25%
Barrow25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southend
1.60
Barrow
1.07

Southend creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Southend
1.50
Barrow
0.90

allows per match

Southend
1.25
Barrow
1.70

finishing

Southend+0.00on par
Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Southend or draw
75%
Southend or Barrow
75%
Draw or Barrow
50%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+
26%
Barrow wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals
80%
Southend 2+ goals
47%
Southend 3+ goals
22%
Barrow 1+ goals
66%
Barrow 2+ goals
29%
Barrow 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)
66%
Barrow (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.50 + Barrow defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

Barrow attack 0.90 + Southend defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Southend scores more
50%
level
25%
Barrow scores more
25%

Southend at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Southend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Barrow win just 12% of their away games
  • 50% of Barrow’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Barrow matches are rarely goalless — only 2.7% end 0-0
  • 20% of Barrow’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Southend
LDLDW
Barrow
DWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Southend face Barrow (League #43)

League #43 returns with Southend hosting Barrow. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Southend host Barrow at Roots Hall.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.