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Southend vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Southend
Southend
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Barrow
Barrow
R. Hackett-Fairchild 3'
1/9/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Southend39%
×Draw29%
Barrow32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southend
1.19
Barrow
1.06

Southend creates 12% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 138 away

creates per match

Southend
0.94
Barrow
0.99

allows per match

Southend
1.13
Barrow
1.44

finishing

Southend+0.00on par
Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Southend or draw
68%
Southend or Barrow
71%
Draw or Barrow
61%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+
17%
Barrow wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals
70%
Southend 2+ goals
33%
Southend 3+ goals
12%
Barrow 1+ goals
65%
Barrow 2+ goals
29%
Barrow 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)
55%
Barrow (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 0.94 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Barrow attack 0.99 + Southend defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Southend scores more
39%
level
29%
Barrow scores more
32%

Southend at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Southend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. OxleySouthendSouthend · G
7.6

Match Events

3'
R. Hackett-Fairchild↳ E. Bwomono
17'
Greg Halford
52'
Greg Halford
52'
Greg Halford
54'
Sam Hird
61'
A. McCormack← R. Hackett-Fairchild
61'
J. Jones← S. Hird
72'
D. Angus← C. Brown
79'
Mark Oxley
81'
A. Nathaniel-George← S. Akinola
81'
R. Taylor← J. Olayinka
83'
Josh Kay

Possession

31%Southend

Shots

9Southend

Pass accuracy

42%Southend

Statistics

SouthendBarrow
Overview
31%Possession69%
9Total Shots11
4Corners4
11Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots11
3On Target4
5Off Target3
1Blocked4
2Inside Box8
7Outside Box3
Passing
31%Possession69%
232Total Passes484
127Accurate Passes365
55%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Southend vs Barrow

Southend beat Barrow 1-0 in League Two on January 9, 2021.

Goals: R. Hackett-Fairchild (3').

Barrow controlled possession (69%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Roots Hall in Southend-on-Sea, Essex.