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Southend vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Southend
Southend
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Barnsley
Barnsley
3/2/2019League OneLeague One · Round 35Roots Hall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Southend28%
×Draw24%
Barnsley48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southend
1.27
Barnsley
1.72

Barnsley creates 35% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 121 away

creates per match

Southend
1.23
Barnsley
1.57

allows per match

Southend
1.86
Barnsley
1.30

finishing

Southend+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Southend or draw
52%
Southend or Barnsley
76%
Draw or Barnsley
72%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+
12%
Barnsley wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals
72%
Southend 2+ goals
36%
Southend 3+ goals
14%
Barnsley 1+ goals
82%
Barnsley 2+ goals
51%
Barnsley 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)
37%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.86 · 43 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 1.23 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Barnsley attack 1.57 + Southend defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Southend scores more
28%
level
24%
Barnsley scores more
48%

Barnsley at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Southend 0–3 Barnsley

Barnsley beat Southend 3-0 in League One on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Roots Hall in Southend-on-Sea.