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Southampton WFC W vs West Bromwich Albion W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Southampton WFC W
Southampton WFC W
FT
3 – 1
West Bromwich Albion W
West Bromwich Albion W
1/5/2020FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Bypass Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Southampton WFC W18%
×Draw16%
West Bromwich Albion W66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton WFC W
1.60
West Bromwich Albion W
3.09

West Bromwich Albion W creates 93% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Southampton WFC W
1.57
West Bromwich Albion W
3.75

allows per match

Southampton WFC W
2.43
West Bromwich Albion W
1.63

finishing

Southampton WFC W+0.00on par
West Bromwich Albion W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton WFC W ↓

West Bromwich Albion W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Southampton WFC W or draw
34%
Southampton WFC W or West Bromwich Albion W
84%
Draw or West Bromwich Albion W
82%

Winning margin

Southampton WFC W wins by 2+
8%
West Bromwich Albion W wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Southampton WFC W 1+ goals
80%
Southampton WFC W 2+ goals
47%
Southampton WFC W 3+ goals
22%
West Bromwich Albion W 1+ goals
95%
West Bromwich Albion W 2+ goals
81%
West Bromwich Albion W 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Southampton WFC W (draw refunded)
21%
West Bromwich Albion W (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton WFC W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

West Bromwich Albion W away — creates 3.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton WFC W attack 1.57 + West Bromwich Albion W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

West Bromwich Albion W attack 3.75 + Southampton WFC W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 3.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Southampton WFC W scores more
18%
level
16%
West Bromwich Albion W scores more
66%

West Bromwich Albion W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "West Bromwich Albion W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Southampton WFC W 3 – 1 West Bromwich Albion W

Southampton WFC W beat West Bromwich Albion W 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at The Bypass Ground in Romsey, Hampshire.