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Southampton WFC W vs Watford W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Southampton WFC W
Southampton WFC W
FT
1 – 6
Watford W
Watford W
12/10/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundTest Park Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Southampton WFC W31%
×Draw20%
Watford W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton WFC W
1.85
Watford W
2.34

Watford W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Southampton WFC W
1.57
Watford W
2.25

allows per match

Southampton WFC W
2.43
Watford W
2.13

finishing

Southampton WFC W+0.00on par
Watford W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton WFC W ↓

Watford W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Southampton WFC W or draw
51%
Southampton WFC W or Watford W
80%
Draw or Watford W
69%

Winning margin

Southampton WFC W wins by 2+
16%
Watford W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Southampton WFC W 1+ goals
84%
Southampton WFC W 2+ goals
55%
Southampton WFC W 3+ goals
28%
Watford W 1+ goals
90%
Watford W 2+ goals
67%
Watford W 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Southampton WFC W (draw refunded)
39%
Watford W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton WFC W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Watford W away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton WFC W attack 1.57 + Watford W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.85

Watford W attack 2.25 + Southampton WFC W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Southampton WFC W scores more
31%
level
20%
Watford W scores more
49%

Watford W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Watford W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southampton WFC W vs Watford W

Watford W beat Southampton WFC W 6-1 in FA Women's Cup on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Test Park Sports Ground in Southampton, Hampshire.