Southampton WFC W 0–0 Milton Keynes Dons W

Southampton WFC W

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons W

12/1/2019

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Bypass Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Southampton WFC W54%

×Draw19%

Milton Keynes Dons W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southampton WFC WExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.92

Southampton WFC W

2.69

Milton Keynes Dons W

1.92

Southampton WFC W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.57

creates per match

1.40

2.43

allows per match

3.80

creates per match

Southampton WFC W

1.57

Milton Keynes Dons W

1.40

allows per match

Southampton WFC W

2.43

Milton Keynes Dons W

3.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton WFC W+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton WFC W ↓

Milton Keynes Dons W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Southampton WFC W or draw

72%

Southampton WFC W or Milton Keynes Dons W

81%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons W

46%

Winning margin

Southampton WFC W wins by 2+

35%

Milton Keynes Dons W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Southampton WFC W 1+ goals

93%

Southampton WFC W 2+ goals

74%

Southampton WFC W 3+ goals

49%

Milton Keynes Dons W 1+ goals

85%

Milton Keynes Dons W 2+ goals

57%

Milton Keynes Dons W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Southampton WFC W (draw refunded)

66%

Milton Keynes Dons W (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Southampton WFC W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Milton Keynes Dons W away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Southampton WFC W attack 1.57 + Milton Keynes Dons W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.69

Milton Keynes Dons W attack 1.40 + Southampton WFC W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Southampton WFC W scores more

54%

level

19%

Milton Keynes Dons W scores more

28%

Southampton WFC W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Southampton WFC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff