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Southampton WFC W vs Maidenhead United W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Southampton WFC W
Southampton WFC W
FT
3 – 0
Maidenhead United W
Maidenhead United W
12/3/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundWinklebury Football Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Southampton WFC W47%
×Draw21%
Maidenhead United W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton WFC W
2.12
Maidenhead United W
1.72

Southampton WFC W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Southampton WFC W
1.57
Maidenhead United W
1.00

allows per match

Southampton WFC W
2.43
Maidenhead United W
2.67

finishing

Southampton WFC W+0.00on par
Maidenhead United W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton WFC W ↓

Maidenhead United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Southampton WFC W or draw
68%
Southampton WFC W or Maidenhead United W
79%
Draw or Maidenhead United W
53%

Winning margin

Southampton WFC W wins by 2+
27%
Maidenhead United W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Southampton WFC W 1+ goals
88%
Southampton WFC W 2+ goals
62%
Southampton WFC W 3+ goals
35%
Maidenhead United W 1+ goals
82%
Maidenhead United W 2+ goals
51%
Maidenhead United W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Southampton WFC W (draw refunded)
60%
Maidenhead United W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton WFC W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Maidenhead United W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton WFC W attack 1.57 + Maidenhead United W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.12

Maidenhead United W attack 1.00 + Southampton WFC W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Southampton WFC W scores more
47%
level
21%
Maidenhead United W scores more
32%

Southampton WFC W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Southampton WFC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Southampton WFC W 3–0 Maidenhead United W

Southampton WFC W beat Maidenhead United W 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Winklebury Football Complex in Basingstoke, Hampshire.