Southampton WFC W 0–3 London Bees W: Result & Stats

Southampton WFC W

0 – 3

London Bees W

12/4/2022

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Southampton WFC W28%

×Draw21%

London Bees W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southampton WFC WExpected goals in this matchLondon Bees W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.16

Southampton WFC W

1.56

London Bees W

2.16

London Bees W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.57

creates per match

1.89

2.43

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Southampton WFC W

1.57

London Bees W

1.89

allows per match

Southampton WFC W

2.43

London Bees W

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton WFC W+0.00on par

London Bees W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton WFC W ↓

London Bees W →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Southampton WFC W or draw

49%

Southampton WFC W or London Bees W

79%

Draw or London Bees W

72%

Winning margin

Southampton WFC W wins by 2+

13%

London Bees W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Southampton WFC W 1+ goals

79%

Southampton WFC W 2+ goals

46%

Southampton WFC W 3+ goals

21%

London Bees W 1+ goals

88%

London Bees W 2+ goals

63%

London Bees W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Southampton WFC W (draw refunded)

35%

London Bees W (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Southampton WFC W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

London Bees W away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Southampton WFC W attack 1.57 + London Bees W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

London Bees W attack 1.89 + Southampton WFC W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Southampton WFC W scores more

28%

level

21%

London Bees W scores more

51%

London Bees W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "London Bees W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff