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Southampton WFC W vs Exeter City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Southampton WFC W
Southampton WFC W
FT
0 – 3
Exeter City W
Exeter City W
12/19/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundArlesbury Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Southampton WFC W11%
×Draw13%
Exeter City W76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton WFC W
1.22
Exeter City W
3.29

Exeter City W creates 170% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Southampton WFC W
1.57
Exeter City W
4.14

allows per match

Southampton WFC W
2.43
Exeter City W
0.86

finishing

Southampton WFC W+0.00on par
Exeter City W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton WFC W ↓

Exeter City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Southampton WFC W or draw
24%
Southampton WFC W or Exeter City W
87%
Draw or Exeter City W
89%

Winning margin

Southampton WFC W wins by 2+
4%
Exeter City W wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Southampton WFC W 1+ goals
70%
Southampton WFC W 2+ goals
34%
Southampton WFC W 3+ goals
12%
Exeter City W 1+ goals
96%
Exeter City W 2+ goals
83%
Exeter City W 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Southampton WFC W (draw refunded)
12%
Exeter City W (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton WFC W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Exeter City W away — creates 4.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton WFC W attack 1.57 + Exeter City W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.22

Exeter City W attack 4.14 + Southampton WFC W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 3.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Southampton WFC W scores more
11%
level
13%
Exeter City W scores more
76%

Exeter City W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Exeter City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Southampton WFC W 0–3 Exeter City W

Exeter City W beat Southampton WFC W 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Arlesbury Park in Winchester, Hampshire.