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Southampton W vs Swindon Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Southampton W
Southampton W
FT
1 – 0
Swindon Town W
Swindon Town W
11/14/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundSnows Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Southampton W50%
×Draw19%
Swindon Town W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton W
2.71
Swindon Town W
2.15

Southampton W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Southampton W
2.71
Swindon Town W
2.86

allows per match

Southampton W
1.43
Swindon Town W
2.71

finishing

Southampton W+0.00on par
Swindon Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton W ↓

Swindon Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Southampton W or draw
69%
Southampton W or Swindon Town W
81%
Draw or Swindon Town W
50%

Winning margin

Southampton W wins by 2+
31%
Swindon Town W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Southampton W 1+ goals
93%
Southampton W 2+ goals
75%
Southampton W 3+ goals
50%
Swindon Town W 1+ goals
88%
Swindon Town W 2+ goals
63%
Swindon Town W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Southampton W (draw refunded)
61%
Swindon Town W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton W at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Swindon Town W away — creates 2.86, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton W attack 2.71 + Swindon Town W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.71

Swindon Town W attack 2.86 + Southampton W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Southampton W scores more
50%
level
19%
Swindon Town W scores more
31%

Southampton W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Southampton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southampton W vs Swindon Town W

Southampton W beat Swindon Town W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Snows Stadium in Totton, Hampshire.