Southampton W 3–0 Plymouth Argyle W: Result & Stats

Southampton W

3 – 0

Plymouth Argyle W

4/4/2021

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundSnows Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Southampton W57%

×Draw19%

Plymouth Argyle W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southampton WExpected goals in this matchPlymouth Argyle W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.57

Southampton W

2.50

Plymouth Argyle W

1.57

Southampton W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

2.71

creates per match

1.71

1.43

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Southampton W

2.71

Plymouth Argyle W

1.71

allows per match

Southampton W

1.43

Plymouth Argyle W

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton W+0.00on par

Plymouth Argyle W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton W ↓

Plymouth Argyle W →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Southampton W or draw

76%

Southampton W or Plymouth Argyle W

81%

Draw or Plymouth Argyle W

43%

Winning margin

Southampton W wins by 2+

37%

Plymouth Argyle W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Southampton W 1+ goals

92%

Southampton W 2+ goals

71%

Southampton W 3+ goals

45%

Plymouth Argyle W 1+ goals

79%

Plymouth Argyle W 2+ goals

46%

Plymouth Argyle W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Southampton W (draw refunded)

71%

Plymouth Argyle W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Southampton W at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Plymouth Argyle W away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Southampton W attack 2.71 + Plymouth Argyle W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.50

Plymouth Argyle W attack 1.71 + Southampton W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Southampton W scores more

57%

level

19%

Plymouth Argyle W scores more

24%

Southampton W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Southampton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff