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Southampton W vs Coventry United W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Southampton W
Southampton W
FT
1 – 4
Coventry United W
Coventry United W
1/26/2020FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundSt. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Southampton W57%
×Draw18%
Coventry United W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton W
2.77
Coventry United W
1.80

Southampton W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Southampton W
2.71
Coventry United W
2.17

allows per match

Southampton W
1.43
Coventry United W
2.83

finishing

Southampton W+0.00on par
Coventry United W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton W ↓

Coventry United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Southampton W or draw
76%
Southampton W or Coventry United W
82%
Draw or Coventry United W
43%

Winning margin

Southampton W wins by 2+
38%
Coventry United W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Southampton W 1+ goals
94%
Southampton W 2+ goals
76%
Southampton W 3+ goals
51%
Coventry United W 1+ goals
83%
Coventry United W 2+ goals
54%
Coventry United W 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Southampton W (draw refunded)
70%
Coventry United W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton W at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Coventry United W away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton W attack 2.71 + Coventry United W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.77

Coventry United W attack 2.17 + Southampton W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Southampton W scores more
57%
level
18%
Coventry United W scores more
24%

Southampton W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Southampton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Southampton W 1–4 Coventry United W

Coventry United W beat Southampton W 4-1 in FA Women's Cup on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire.