Southampton 2–3 Wolves: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Wolves

S. Long 35'

J. Bednarek 15'

R. Jiménez 76', 65' (pen)

Pedro Neto 53'

1/18/2020

Premier League · Round 23St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Southampton36%

×Draw25%

Wolves39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.47

Southampton

1.42

Wolves

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 31 away

1.13

creates per match

0.82

2.13

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Southampton

1.13

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

Southampton

2.13

Wolves

1.72

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.37scores more

Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

61%

Southampton or Wolves

75%

Draw or Wolves

64%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

17%

Wolves wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

76%

Southampton 2+ goals

41%

Southampton 3+ goals

17%

Wolves 1+ goals

77%

Wolves 2+ goals

43%

Wolves 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

49%

Wolves (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 6 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.13 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.42

Wolves attack 0.82 + Southampton defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Southampton scores more

36%

level

25%

Wolves scores more

39%

Wolves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

Adama Traoré

Wolves · F

8.2

Match Events

15'

J. Bednarek

29'

James Ward-Prowse

35'

S. Long↳ Cédric Soares

53'

Pedro Neto↳ Adama Traoré

57'

Jan Bednarek

65'

R. JiménezPenalty

71'

M. Djenepo← S. Armstrong

71'

C. Adams← S. Long

76'

R. Jiménez↳ Adama Traoré

78'

S. Boufal← N. Redmond

86'

M. Kilman← Pedro Neto

88'

Rúben Neves

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonWolves

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots8

1Corners3

13Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target4

5Off Target3

1Blocked1

9Inside Box6

2Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

402Total Passes371

282Accurate Passes237

70%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2