Southampton 3–1 Wolves: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Wolves

S. Long 71'

N. Redmond 30', 2'

W. Boly 28'

4/13/2019

Premier League · Round 34St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Southampton37%

×Draw24%

Wolves39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.55

Southampton

1.50

Wolves

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 31 away

1.28

creates per match

0.82

2.28

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Southampton

1.28

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

Southampton

2.28

Wolves

1.72

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.29scores more

Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

61%

Southampton or Wolves

76%

Draw or Wolves

63%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

18%

Wolves wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

78%

Southampton 2+ goals

44%

Southampton 3+ goals

19%

Wolves 1+ goals

79%

Wolves 2+ goals

46%

Wolves 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

49%

Wolves (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 7 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.28 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Wolves attack 0.82 + Southampton defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Southampton scores more

37%

level

24%

Wolves scores more

39%

Wolves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

N. Redmond

Southampton · F

8.9

Match Events

2'

N. Redmond↳ J. Sims

28'

W. Boly↳ João Moutinho

30'

N. Redmond↳ D. Ings

40'

João Moutinho

45'

Raúl Jiménez

60'

Adama Traoré← M. Doherty

61'

S. Long← D. Ings

61'

Oriol Romeu← J. Sims

67'

Ryan Bertrand

69'

M. Gibbs-White← Rúben Neves

71'

S. Long↳ M. Yoshida

74'

Romain Saïss

84'

J. Stephens← Y. Valery

87'

Hélder Costa← Diogo Jota

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonWolves

Overview

30%Possession70%

12Total Shots17

4Corners9

13Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots17

6On Target2

4Off Target8

2Blocked7

9Inside Box8

3Outside Box9

Passing

30%Possession70%

281Total Passes625

180Accurate Passes505

64%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2