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Southampton vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Southampton
Southampton
Preview
19:45
West Brom
West Brom
1/26/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28
Big match
38%
Southampton
model favours
38%27%34%

Southampton score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Southampton38%
×Draw27%
West Brom34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.27
West Brom
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.54
West Brom
1.36

allows per match

Southampton
1.01
West Brom
1.01

finishing

Southampton-0.54scores less
West Brom-0.42scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
66%
Southampton or West Brom
73%
Draw or West Brom
62%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
17%
West Brom wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
72%
Southampton 2+ goals
36%
Southampton 3+ goals
14%
West Brom 1+ goals
70%
West Brom 2+ goals
33%
West Brom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
53%
West Brom (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.01 · 10 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.01 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.54 + West Brom defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

West Brom attack 1.36 + Southampton defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Southampton scores more
38%
level
27%
West Brom scores more
34%

Southampton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Southampton have scored in 12 games running
  • 81% of Southampton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Southampton’s matches
  • West Brom score first in only 27% of matches
  • Southampton sit 4, West Brom 19 in the table
  • Style contrast — Southampton play Possession-dominant, West Brom Attack-heavy

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Southampton
Possession-dominant
West Brom
Attack-heavy
60%PossessionBiggest gap53%
85%Pass accuracy81%
14.1Shots13.4
1.52xG1.39
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
SouthamptonWest Brom

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6
Southampton
1
Draws
3
West Brom
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 40%
1–13–20–32–03–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Southampton
DDWD
Brom
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Southampton face West Brom (Championship)

Championship returns with Southampton hosting West Brom. Match starts January 26, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.