Southampton 1–2 West Brom: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

West Brom

S. Long 41'

H. Robson-Kanu 50'

M. Phillips 43'

12/31/2016

Premier League · Round 19St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Southampton45%

×Draw26%

West Brom29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.10

Southampton

1.43

West Brom

1.10

Southampton creates 30% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 94 away

1.34

creates per match

0.84

1.37

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Southampton

1.34

West Brom

0.84

allows per match

Southampton

1.37

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

71%

Southampton or West Brom

74%

Draw or West Brom

55%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

22%

West Brom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

76%

Southampton 2+ goals

42%

Southampton 3+ goals

17%

West Brom 1+ goals

67%

West Brom 2+ goals

30%

West Brom 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

61%

West Brom (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 169 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.34 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

West Brom attack 0.84 + Southampton defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Southampton scores more

45%

level

26%

West Brom scores more

29%

Southampton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Phillips

West Brom · M

8.8

Match Events

32'

Virgil van Dijk

36'

Allan Nyom

41'

S. Long↳ D. Tadić

43'

M. Phillips↳ H. Robson-Kanu

46'

J. McClean← A. Nyom

50'

H. Robson-Kanu↳ M. Phillips

52'

Hal Robson-Kanu

52'

J. Rodriguez← P. Højbjerg

53'

J. Morrison← N. Chadli

72'

S. Rondón← H. Robson-Kanu

74'

J. Sims← D. Tadić

75'

Craig Dawson

75'

J. Ward-Prowse← R. Martina

77'

Sofiane Boufal

89'

Virgil van Dijk

89'

Virgil van Dijk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonWest

Overview

67%Possession33%

10Total Shots7

8Corners3

13Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots7

1On Target3

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

5Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

572Total Passes278

475Accurate Passes175

83%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1