Southampton 1–2 Watford: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Watford

M. Elyounoussi 45'

J. Hernández 34', 14'

3/13/2022

Premier League · Round 29St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Southampton47%

×Draw25%

Watford28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.16

Southampton

1.56

Watford

1.16

Southampton creates 34% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 114 away

1.35

creates per match

0.96

1.36

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Southampton

1.35

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Southampton

1.36

Watford

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

72%

Southampton or Watford

75%

Draw or Watford

53%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

24%

Watford wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

79%

Southampton 2+ goals

46%

Southampton 3+ goals

21%

Watford 1+ goals

69%

Watford 2+ goals

32%

Watford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

62%

Watford (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 173 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.77 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.35 + Watford defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Watford attack 0.96 + Southampton defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Southampton scores more

47%

level

25%

Watford scores more

28%

Southampton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Hernández

Watford · F

8.5

Match Events

14'

J. Hernández

34'

J. Hernández↳ J. Kucka

45'

M. Elyounoussi↳ C. Adams

46'

A. Broja← W. Smallbone

48'

Romain Perraud

60'

Cucho Hernández

65'

Oriol Romeu

74'

N. Redmond← Oriol Romeu

76'

Jan Bednarek

86'

Moussa Sissoko

87'

J. King← E. Dennis

90'

Jan BednarekPenalty cancelled

90+4'

S. Long← A. Broja

90+7'

K. Sema← J. Hernández

90+1'

C. Cathcart← Kiko Femenía

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonWatford

Overview

63%Possession37%

13Total Shots9

11Corners3

8Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots9

7On Target5

5Off Target3

1Blocked1

10Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

498Total Passes306

386Accurate Passes203

78%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2