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Southampton vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Southampton
Southampton
Preview
14:00
Stoke City
Stoke City
8/22/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2
Big match
52%
Southampton
model favours
52%24%24%

Southampton score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 43+ matches

Southampton52%
×Draw24%
Stoke City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.70
Stoke City
1.06

Southampton creates 60% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 52 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.78
Stoke City
1.05

allows per match

Southampton
1.07
Stoke City
1.61

finishing

Southampton+0.20scores more
Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
76%
Southampton or Stoke City
76%
Draw or Stoke City
48%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
28%
Stoke City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
82%
Southampton 2+ goals
51%
Southampton 3+ goals
24%
Stoke City 1+ goals
65%
Stoke City 2+ goals
29%
Stoke City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
69%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.07 · 43 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.61 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.78 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.70

Stoke City attack 1.05 + Southampton defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Southampton scores more
52%
level
24%
Stoke City scores more
24%

Southampton at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Southampton have scored in 13 games running
  • 82% of Southampton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Southampton’s matches
  • Southampton sit 4, Stoke City 17 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Southampton
Possession-dominant
Stoke City
Balanced
60%Possession50%
86%Pass accuracy75%
14.4Shots11.4
1.66xGBiggest gap1.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
SouthamptonStoke City

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Southampton
2
Draws
5
Stoke City
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 40%
2–01–20–11–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Southampton
WDDW
City
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Southampton vs Stoke City — Match Preview

Southampton face Stoke City on August 22, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.