Southampton 0–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stoke City

Bojan 10'

11/21/2015

Premier League · Round 13St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Southampton47%

×Draw25%

Stoke City28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.14

Southampton

1.56

Stoke City

1.14

Southampton creates 37% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 59 away

1.27

creates per match

0.85

1.42

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Southampton

1.27

Stoke City

0.85

allows per match

Southampton

1.42

Stoke City

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

72%

Southampton or Stoke City

75%

Draw or Stoke City

53%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

24%

Stoke City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

79%

Southampton 2+ goals

46%

Southampton 3+ goals

21%

Stoke City 1+ goals

68%

Stoke City 2+ goals

32%

Stoke City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

63%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.42 · 152 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.85 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.27 + Stoke City defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Stoke City attack 0.85 + Southampton defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Southampton scores more

47%

level

25%

Stoke City scores more

28%

Southampton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

V. Wanyama

Southampton · M

7.7

Match Events

10'

Bojan↳ E. Pieters

64'

S. Mané← J. Clasie

65'

I. Afellay← X. Shaqiri

71'

G. Cameron← Bojan

72'

J. Ward-Prowse← S. Davis

77'

James Ward-Prowse

85'

Juanmi← Cédric Soares

87'

M. Diouf← J. Walters

90'

Graziano Pellè

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonStoke

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots16

7Corners3

0Fouls0

Shots

15Total Shots16

1On Target4

13Off Target11

1Blocked1

9Inside Box8

6Outside Box8

Passing

58%Possession42%

517Total Passes389

403Accurate Passes289

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

0Fouls0

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2