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Southampton vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Southampton
Southampton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
10/7/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Southampton62%
×Draw22%
Rotherham16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.91
Rotherham
0.86

Southampton creates 122% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 92 away

creates per match

Southampton
2.06
Rotherham
0.68

allows per match

Southampton
1.04
Rotherham
1.75

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
84%
Southampton or Rotherham
78%
Draw or Rotherham
38%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
37%
Rotherham wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
85%
Southampton 2+ goals
57%
Southampton 3+ goals
30%
Rotherham 1+ goals
58%
Rotherham 2+ goals
21%
Rotherham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
79%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.75 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 2.06 + Rotherham defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.91

Rotherham attack 0.68 + Southampton defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Southampton scores more
62%
level
22%
Rotherham scores more
16%

Southampton at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Southampton 1–1 Rotherham

Southampton and Rotherham drew 1-1 in Championship on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire.