Southampton 0–1 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester United

Bruno Fernandes 55'

8/27/2022

Premier League · Round 4St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Southampton30%

×Draw23%

Manchester United47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.82

Southampton

1.40

Manchester United

1.82

Manchester United creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 27 away

1.28

creates per match

1.36

2.28

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Southampton

1.28

Manchester United

1.36

allows per match

Southampton

2.28

Manchester United

1.52

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Southampton+0.29scores more

Manchester United+0.08on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

53%

Southampton or Manchester United

77%

Draw or Manchester United

70%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

13%

Manchester United wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

75%

Southampton 2+ goals

41%

Southampton 3+ goals

17%

Manchester United 1+ goals

84%

Manchester United 2+ goals

54%

Manchester United 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

39%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 7 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.28 + Manchester United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Manchester United attack 1.36 + Southampton defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Southampton scores more

30%

level

23%

Manchester United scores more

47%

Manchester United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Diogo Dalot

Manchester United · D

8.2

Match Events

50'

Diogo Dalot

55'

Bruno Fernandes↳ Diogo Dalot

63'

S. Armstrong← M. Elyounoussi

68'

Cristiano Ronaldo← J. Sancho

77'

S. Mara← A. Armstrong

80'

Casemiro← A. Elanga

83'

Scott McTominay

89'

R. Perraud← M. Djenepo

89'

Lyanco← J. Aribo

90+6'

Fred

90+2'

Fred← C. Eriksen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonManchester

Overview

48%Possession52%

17Total Shots11

5Corners3

4Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots11

5On Target6

10Off Target2

2Blocked3

14Inside Box9

3Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

364Total Passes404

266Accurate Passes299

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

4Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1