Southampton 1–1 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Manchester City

K. Walker-Peters 7'

Aymeric Laporte 65'

1/22/2022

Premier League · Round 23St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Southampton23%

×Draw22%

Manchester City55%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.94

Southampton

1.17

Manchester City

1.94

Manchester City creates 66% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 31 away

1.13

creates per match

1.76

2.13

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Southampton

1.13

Manchester City

1.76

allows per match

Southampton

2.13

Manchester City

1.21

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.37scores more

Manchester City-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

45%

Southampton or Manchester City

78%

Draw or Manchester City

77%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

9%

Manchester City wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

69%

Southampton 2+ goals

33%

Southampton 3+ goals

11%

Manchester City 1+ goals

86%

Manchester City 2+ goals

58%

Manchester City 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

29%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 6 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.13 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Manchester City attack 1.76 + Southampton defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Southampton scores more

23%

level

22%

Manchester City scores more

55%

Manchester City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Salisu

Southampton · D

8.5

Match Events

7'

K. Walker-Peters↳ N. Redmond

33'

Jan Bednarek

46'

M. Elyounoussi← N. Redmond

60'

Gabriel Jesus← R. Sterling

65'

Aymeric Laporte↳ K. De Bruyne

71'

Lyanco← J. Bednarek

79'

Stuart Armstrong

80'

Stuart ArmstrongCard reviewed

82'

I. Diallo← S. Armstrong

90+2'

Mohamed Elyounoussi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonManchester

Overview

26%Possession74%

7Total Shots20

2Corners11

13Fouls5

Shots

7Total Shots20

3On Target5

3Off Target8

1Blocked7

6Inside Box11

1Outside Box9

Passing

26%Possession74%

278Total Passes777

193Accurate Passes700

69%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls5

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0