Manchester City vs Southampton — Premier League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 173+ matches
Manchester City65%
Southampton16%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Manchester City creates 126% more chances
Season form · 202 home / 173 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Manchester City ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Manchester City at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.84 · 202 matches
Southampton away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 173 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Manchester City attack 2.68 + Southampton defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.15
Southampton attack 1.05 + Manchester City defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 65%?"
Manchester City at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 65% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Bournemouth
Brentford
Brighton
Chelsea
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Everton
Fulham
Hull City
Ipswich
Leeds
LiverpoolManchester City
Manchester United
Newcastle
Nottingham Forest
Sunderland
TottenhamIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Manchester City host Southampton on Saturday, 26 October 2024 at 14:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2026/2027 season.
Premier League: Manchester City 1–0 Southampton
Manchester City beat Southampton 1-0 in Premier League on October 26, 2024.
Goals: E. Haaland (5').
Manchester City controlled possession (57%) and registered 22 shots to 5.
The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.