Southampton 0–1 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester City

R. Sterling 16'

12/19/2020

Premier League · Round 14St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Southampton23%

×Draw21%

Manchester City55%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.04

Southampton

1.25

Manchester City

2.04

Manchester City creates 63% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 34 away

1.28

creates per match

1.79

2.28

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Southampton

1.28

Manchester City

1.79

allows per match

Southampton

2.28

Manchester City

1.21

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.29scores more

Manchester City-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

45%

Southampton or Manchester City

79%

Draw or Manchester City

77%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

9%

Manchester City wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

71%

Southampton 2+ goals

36%

Southampton 3+ goals

13%

Manchester City 1+ goals

87%

Manchester City 2+ goals

60%

Manchester City 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

29%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 7 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.28 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Manchester City attack 1.79 + Southampton defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Southampton scores more

23%

level

21%

Manchester City scores more

55%

Manchester City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Vestergaard

Southampton · D

7.6

Match Events

16'

R. Sterling↳ K. De Bruyne

25'

Kevin De Bruyne

38'

Oriol Romeu

41'

N. Tella← D. Ings

42'

James Ward-Prowse

59'

N. Redmond← M. Djenepo

72'

R. Mahrez← Ferran Torres

81'

Ederson

82'

D. Nlundulu← C. Adams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonManchester

Overview

48%Possession52%

9Total Shots11

6Corners6

9Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots11

3On Target5

3Off Target4

3Blocked2

7Inside Box5

2Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

498Total Passes547

408Accurate Passes466

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2