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Southampton vs Lincoln — League #48 2026

Southampton
Southamptonadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lincoln
Lincoln
C. Adams 74', 25'
G. Bazunu 2' (OG)
12/20/2022League #48League #48 · Round of 16St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Southampton44%
×Draw24%
Lincoln31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.63
Lincoln
1.33

Southampton creates 23% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.50
Lincoln
2.00

allows per match

Southampton
0.67
Lincoln
1.75

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
69%
Southampton or Lincoln
76%
Draw or Lincoln
56%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
23%
Lincoln wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
80%
Southampton 2+ goals
48%
Southampton 3+ goals
22%
Lincoln 1+ goals
74%
Lincoln 2+ goals
38%
Lincoln 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
59%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Lincoln away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.50 + Lincoln defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lincoln attack 2.00 + Southampton defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Southampton scores more
44%
level
24%
Lincoln scores more
31%

Southampton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
M. ElyounoussiSouthamptonSouthampton · M
7.9

Match Events

2'
G. BazunuOwn goal
25'
C. Adams↳ M. Elyounoussi
46'
D. Ćaleta-Car← A. Bella-Kotchap
62'
T. Walcott← A. Armstrong
63'
S. Edozie← K. Walker-Peters
63'
S. Armstrong← M. Salisu
71'
T. Hopper← B. House
74'
C. Adams
76'
E. Bishop← D. Mândroiu
77'
M. Djenepo← T. Walcott
86'
J. Garrick← J. Walsh
90+3'
Paudie O’Connor

Possession

69%Southampton

Shots

16Southampton

Pass accuracy

58%Southampton

Statistics

SouthamptonLincoln
Overview
69%Possession31%
16Total Shots5
4Corners4
11Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots5
6On Target2
9Off Target2
1Blocked1
12Inside Box1
4Outside Box4
Passing
69%Possession31%
608Total Passes269
517Accurate Passes168
85%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

League #48: Southampton 2–1 Lincoln

Southampton beat Lincoln 2-1 in League #48 on December 20, 2022.

Goals: G. Bazunu (2' o.g.), C. Adams (25', 74').

Southampton controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire.