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Southampton vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Southampton
Southampton
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Leicester
Leicester
V. van Dijk 37'
José Fonte 21'
J. Vardy 90+1', 66'
10/17/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 169+ matches

Southampton39%
×Draw25%
Leicester36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.48
Leicester
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 169 home / 170 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.34
Leicester
1.45

allows per match

Southampton
1.37
Leicester
1.61

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
64%
Southampton or Leicester
75%
Draw or Leicester
61%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
19%
Leicester wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
77%
Southampton 2+ goals
43%
Southampton 3+ goals
19%
Leicester 1+ goals
76%
Leicester 2+ goals
41%
Leicester 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
52%
Leicester (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 169 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.34 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Leicester attack 1.45 + Southampton defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Southampton scores more
39%
level
25%
Leicester scores more
36%

Southampton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
V. van DijkSouthamptonSouthampton · D
8.5

Match Events

21'
José Fonte↳ D. Tadić
22'
Victor Wanyama
37'
V. van Dijk
46'
N. Dyer← J. Schlupp
46'
R. Mahrez← S. Okazaki
60'
M. Yoshida← Cédric Soares
60'
J. Clasie← S. Davis
66'
J. Vardy↳ N. Dyer
75'
J. Rodriguez← D. Tadić
76'
Ryan Bertrand
90+1'
J. Vardy↳ R. Mahrez

Possession

50%Southampton

Shots

13Southampton

Pass accuracy

51%Southampton

Statistics

SouthamptonLeicester
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots27
6Corners7
0Fouls0
Shots
13Total Shots27
6On Target7
5Off Target12
2Blocked8
9Inside Box16
4Outside Box11
Passing
50%Possession50%
360Total Passes342
269Accurate Passes245
75%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
0Fouls0
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Premier League: Southampton 2–2 Leicester

Southampton and Leicester drew 2-2 in Premier League on October 17, 2015.

Goals: José Fonte (21'), V. van Dijk (37'), J. Vardy (66', 90+1').

Southampton controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 27.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton.