Leicester 2–0 Southampton: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Southampton

J. Ayew 44'

J. Vardy 17'

5/3/2025

Premier League · Round 35King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 168+ matches

Leicester48%

×Draw25%

Southampton27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.13

Leicester

1.60

Southampton

1.13

Leicester creates 42% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 168 away

1.56

creates per match

1.08

1.18

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Leicester

1.56

Southampton

1.08

allows per match

Leicester

1.18

Southampton

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par

Southampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

73%

Leicester or Southampton

75%

Draw or Southampton

52%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

25%

Southampton wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

80%

Leicester 2+ goals

47%

Leicester 3+ goals

22%

Southampton 1+ goals

68%

Southampton 2+ goals

31%

Southampton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

64%

Southampton (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 169 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.56 + Southampton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Southampton attack 1.08 + Leicester defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leicester scores more

48%

level

25%

Southampton scores more

27%

Leicester at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

B. El Khannouss

Leicester · M

8.0

Match Events

17'

J. Vardy↳ B. El Khannouss

44'

J. Ayew

46'

P. Onuachu← R. Stewart

46'

T. Dibling← J. Stephens

52'

Kamaldeen Sulemana

57'

J. Robinson← K. Sulemana

57'

W. Smallbone← Mateus Fernandes

66'

Lesley Ugochukwu

68'

Oliver Skipp

70'

J. Monga← J. Ayew

75'

Taylor Harwood-Bellis

79'

C. Archer← L. Ugochukwu

84'

J. Evans← K. McAteer

84'

B. Soumaré← B. El Khannouss

85'

P. Daka← J. Vardy

90+4'

M. Golding← O. Skipp

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterSouthampton

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots8

1.40Expected Goals (xG)0.53

6Corners7

12Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots8

4On Target2

4Off Target1

6Blocked5

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

446Total Passes455

399Accurate Passes396

89%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.67Goals Prevented-0.67

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1