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Southampton vs Hull City — Premier League 2026

Southampton
Southampton
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
4/29/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 35St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Southampton53%
×Draw25%
Hull City22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.61
Hull City
0.95

Southampton creates 69% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 38 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.34
Hull City
0.53

allows per match

Southampton
1.37
Hull City
1.89

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
78%
Southampton or Hull City
75%
Draw or Hull City
47%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
28%
Hull City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
80%
Southampton 2+ goals
48%
Southampton 3+ goals
22%
Hull City 1+ goals
61%
Hull City 2+ goals
25%
Hull City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
70%
Hull City (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 169 matches

Hull City away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.34 + Hull City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hull City attack 0.53 + Southampton defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Southampton scores more
53%
level
25%
Hull City scores more
22%

Southampton at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
H. MaguireHull CityHull City · D
7.8

Match Events

58'
J. Sims← S. Boufal
59'
S. Long← M. Gabbiadini
70'
Harry Maguire
72'
M. Henriksen← Evandro
83'
T. Huddlestone← K. Grosicki
87'
J. Rodriguez← N. Redmond
90'
Andrea Ranocchia
90'
Alfred N'Diaye
90'
M. Dawson← L. Marković

Possession

51%Southampton

Shots

11Southampton

Pass accuracy

51%Southampton

Statistics

SouthamptonHull
Overview
51%Possession49%
11Total Shots9
6Corners6
9Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots9
2On Target1
3Off Target3
6Blocked5
5Inside Box4
6Outside Box5
Passing
51%Possession49%
431Total Passes399
331Accurate Passes294
77%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls13
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Southampton vs Hull City

Southampton and Hull City drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 29, 2017.

Southampton controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton.