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Hull City vs Southampton — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Southampton
Southampton
L. Delap 25'
R. Fraser 90+5'
W. Smallbone 20'
10/21/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Hull City38%
×Draw25%
Southampton37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.41
Southampton
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.36
Southampton
1.38

allows per match

Hull City
1.43
Southampton
1.46

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Southampton+0.12scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
63%
Hull City or Southampton
75%
Draw or Southampton
62%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
17%
Southampton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
76%
Hull City 2+ goals
41%
Hull City 3+ goals
17%
Southampton 1+ goals
75%
Southampton 2+ goals
41%
Southampton 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
50%
Southampton (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.36 + Southampton defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Southampton attack 1.38 + Hull City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hull City scores more
38%
level
25%
Southampton scores more
37%

Hull City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
F. DownesSouthamptonSouthampton · M
8.2

Match Events

20'
W. Smallbone↳ K. Walker-Peters
25'
L. Delap↳ J. Philogene
39'
Ryan Manning
45+1'
Jaden Philogene-Bidace
46'
Cyrus Christie
48'
Carlos Alcaraz
52'
Tyler Morton
65'
O. Tufan← S. Twine
65'
L. Coyle← C. Christie
69'
C. Adams← C. Alcaraz
69'
S. Edozie← K. Sulemana
76'
A. Connolly← J. Lokilo
81'
A. Sayyadmanesh← L. Delap
84'
R. Fraser← S. Armstrong
87'
S. Charles← W. Smallbone
87'
S. Mara← A. Armstrong
90+5'
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
90+3'
Ryan Fraser
90+5'
R. Fraser↳ F. Downes

Possession

44%Hull

Shots

12Hull

Pass accuracy

49%Hull

Statistics

HullSouthampton
Overview
44%Possession56%
12Total Shots18
1.24Expected Goals (xG)1.50
7Corners9
13Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots18
3On Target5
4Off Target6
5Blocked7
9Inside Box12
3Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
431Total Passes557
374Accurate Passes496
87%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls14
4Yellow Cards3
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs Southampton

Southampton beat Hull City 2-1 in Championship on October 21, 2023.

Goals: W. Smallbone (20'), L. Delap (25'), R. Fraser (90+5').

Southampton controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.