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Southampton vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Southampton
Southampton
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
10/28/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 14St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Southampton48%
×Draw28%
Birmingham24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.34
Birmingham
0.86

Southampton creates 56% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 13 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.55
Birmingham
0.81

allows per match

Southampton
0.91
Birmingham
1.13

finishing

Southampton+0.22scores more
Birmingham-0.19scores less

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
76%
Southampton or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
52%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
23%
Birmingham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
74%
Southampton 2+ goals
39%
Southampton 3+ goals
15%
Birmingham 1+ goals
58%
Birmingham 2+ goals
21%
Birmingham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
67%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.55 + Birmingham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Birmingham attack 0.81 + Southampton defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Southampton scores more
48%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
24%

Southampton at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southampton vs Birmingham

Southampton beat Birmingham 3-1 in Championship on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire.