Southampton U18 4–2 Tottenham Hotspur U18

Southampton U18

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tottenham Hotspur U18

H. Gathercole 89', 86'

F. Sainsbury 85'

J. Vallance 1'

A. Muslika 63'

R. Elliott-Parris 35' (pen)

9/20/2025

League #696 · South - 5Staplewood Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Southampton U1833%

×Draw19%

Tottenham Hotspur U1848%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southampton U18Expected goals in this matchTottenham Hotspur U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

2.46

Southampton U18

2.04

Tottenham Hotspur U18

2.46

Tottenham Hotspur U18 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.17

creates per match

2.17

2.75

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Southampton U18

2.17

Tottenham Hotspur U18

2.17

allows per match

Southampton U18

2.75

Tottenham Hotspur U18

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton U18+0.00on par

Tottenham Hotspur U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton U18 ↓

Tottenham Hotspur U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Southampton U18 or draw

52%

Southampton U18 or Tottenham Hotspur U18

81%

Draw or Tottenham Hotspur U18

67%

Winning margin

Southampton U18 wins by 2+

17%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Southampton U18 1+ goals

87%

Southampton U18 2+ goals

60%

Southampton U18 3+ goals

33%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 1+ goals

91%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 2+ goals

70%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Southampton U18 (draw refunded)

41%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton U18 at home — creates 2.17, concedes 2.75 · 12 matches

Tottenham Hotspur U18 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton U18 attack 2.17 + Tottenham Hotspur U18 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.04

Tottenham Hotspur U18 attack 2.17 + Southampton U18 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Southampton U18 scores more

33%

level

19%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 scores more

48%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

J. Vallance

35'

R. Elliott-ParrisPenalty

63'

A. Muslika↳ R. Moncur

73'

S. Bangura

85'

F. Sainsbury↳ H. Gathercole

86'

H. Gathercole↳ W. Nutter

89'

H. Gathercole↳ H. Adjei Afriyie

Southampton

Tottenham

1

2

3

6

5

4

11

8

9

10

7

1

2

5

6

3

4

7

8

9

10

11

Manager: Andrew Surman

Southampton U18 substitutes

17Daniels16McMullan12Newman14Sainsbury15Anderson

Manager: Joe Staunton

Tottenham Hotspur U18 substitutes

15Glancy14Boast16Agyekum12Bangura13Thompson