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South Sudan vs Gabon — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

South Sudan
South Sudan
FT
0 – 1
Gabon
Gabon
10/16/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 5Juba Stadium (Juba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

South Sudan32%
×Draw25%
Gabon43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

South Sudan
1.25
Gabon
1.50

Gabon creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

South Sudan
2.00
Gabon
0.75

allows per match

South Sudan
2.25
Gabon
0.50

finishing

South Sudan+0.00on par
Gabon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Sudan ↓

Gabon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

South Sudan or draw
57%
South Sudan or Gabon
75%
Draw or Gabon
68%

Winning margin

South Sudan wins by 2+
13%
Gabon wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

South Sudan 1+ goals
71%
South Sudan 2+ goals
36%
South Sudan 3+ goals
13%
Gabon 1+ goals
78%
Gabon 2+ goals
44%
Gabon 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

South Sudan (draw refunded)
42%
Gabon (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Sudan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Gabon away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Sudan attack 2.00 + Gabon defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gabon attack 0.75 + South Sudan defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

South Sudan scores more
32%
level
25%
Gabon scores more
43%

Gabon at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gabon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: South Sudan vs Gabon

Gabon beat South Sudan 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on October 16, 2018.

The match was played at Juba Stadium (Juba).