South Shields W 1–4 Norton & Stockton W

South Shields W

1 – 4

Norton & Stockton W

11/14/2021

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundHarton and Westoe Miners Welfare Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

South Shields W13%

×Draw13%

Norton & Stockton W74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South Shields WExpected goals in this matchNorton & Stockton W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

4.13

South Shields W

1.83

Norton & Stockton W

4.13

Norton & Stockton W creates 126% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

3.00

5.25

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

South Shields W

1.00

Norton & Stockton W

3.00

allows per match

South Shields W

5.25

Norton & Stockton W

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Shields W+0.00on par

Norton & Stockton W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields W ↓

Norton & Stockton W →

0–00%

0–11%

0–23%

0–33%

0–44%

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–36%

1–47%

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–23%

3–34%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–4 (7%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

82%18%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

South Shields W or draw

26%

South Shields W or Norton & Stockton W

87%

Draw or Norton & Stockton W

87%

Winning margin

South Shields W wins by 2+

Norton & Stockton W wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

South Shields W 1+ goals

84%

South Shields W 2+ goals

54%

South Shields W 3+ goals

28%

Norton & Stockton W 1+ goals

98%

Norton & Stockton W 2+ goals

91%

Norton & Stockton W 3+ goals

75%

Draw no bet

South Shields W (draw refunded)

15%

Norton & Stockton W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

South Shields W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.25 · 4 matches

Norton & Stockton W away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

South Shields W attack 1.00 + Norton & Stockton W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Norton & Stockton W attack 3.00 + South Shields W defence 5.25 → ÷2 → 4.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

South Shields W scores more

13%

level

13%

Norton & Stockton W scores more

74%

Norton & Stockton W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Norton & Stockton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff