South Shields W 0–11 Liverpool Feds W

South Shields W

0 – 11

HT: 0 – 0

Liverpool Feds W

11/24/2024

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundHarton and Westoe Miners Welfare Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

South Shields W4%

×Draw7%

Liverpool Feds W89%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South Shields WExpected goals in this matchLiverpool Feds W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

4.77

South Shields W

1.15

Liverpool Feds W

4.77

Liverpool Feds W creates 315% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

4.29

5.25

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

South Shields W

1.00

Liverpool Feds W

4.29

allows per match

South Shields W

5.25

Liverpool Feds W

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Shields W+0.00on par

Liverpool Feds W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Shields W ↓

Liverpool Feds W →

0–00%

0–12%

0–24%

0–36%

0–47%

1–00%

1–12%

1–24%

1–37%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–45%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

80%20%4.5

63%37%

Double chance

South Shields W or draw

11%

South Shields W or Liverpool Feds W

93%

Draw or Liverpool Feds W

96%

Winning margin

South Shields W wins by 2+

Liverpool Feds W wins by 2+

76%

Team goals

South Shields W 1+ goals

68%

South Shields W 2+ goals

32%

South Shields W 3+ goals

11%

Liverpool Feds W 1+ goals

99%

Liverpool Feds W 2+ goals

94%

Liverpool Feds W 3+ goals

82%

Draw no bet

South Shields W (draw refunded)

Liverpool Feds W (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

South Shields W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.25 · 4 matches

Liverpool Feds W away — creates 4.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

South Shields W attack 1.00 + Liverpool Feds W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Liverpool Feds W attack 4.29 + South Shields W defence 5.25 → ÷2 → 4.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 89%?"

South Shields W scores more

level

Liverpool Feds W scores more

89%

Liverpool Feds W at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Liverpool Feds W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff